2024 Midyear Outlook: Resilience Amidst Uncertainty

[Narrator] Hello. I’m Neel Mukherjee, TIAA Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, and today I’m excited to share with you some of the highlights from our TIAA Wealth Management 2024 Mid-year Outlook. This Outlook, Resilience Amidst Uncertainty, recaps economic and financial market performance through the first half of 2024, as well as our forward-looking views on the growth, inflation, central bank policy, equity and fixed income markets, and key risks for the remainder of what is sure to be a noisy election year.

[Narrator] The current post-pandemic business cycle continues to feel the lingering impacts of historic fiscal stimulus, 40-year high inflation levels, a record move higher in interest rates, disruptive geopolitical changes, and a technological revolution driven by artificial intelligence.

[Narrator] During the first half of 2024, as economic growth remained resilient and financial conditions eased, the disinflationary process seemingly stalled at a higher than anticipated level. The labor market remained especially strong, supporting consumer spending. And corporate earnings underpinned a rally in equities, and continued excitement around artificial intelligence propelled the technology sector to new highs.

[Narrator] The big questions for investors as we enter the second half of 2024 are focused on if inflation can resume its journey towards the Fed’s target of 2%, and will the economy continue to remain resilient enough to support the ongoing improvement in profits. Or will higher interest rates truly test this resilience with spillover impacts to consumer spending and the labor market.

[Narrator] We are transitioning to a new phase for the markets in the second half of 2024, where investors will be weighing the benefits that come with the lower interest rates, with the risks of a slowing economy. In this environment, we believe investors should remain disciplined, be diversified across various asset classes, and remain anchored to their appropriate long-term asset allocations.
Overall, the second half of 2024 will be interesting for investors, and we hope that our Mid-year Outlook will help make sense of what lies ahead, and the steps investors should take to secure their financial future.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for informational or educational purposes only and is not fiduciary investment advice, or a securities, investment strategy, or insurance product recommendation. This material does not consider an individual’s own objectives or circumstances which should be the basis of any investment decision. 

All investments involve some degree of risk, including loss of principal. Investment objectives may not be met. Investments in managed accounts should be considered in view of a larger, more diversified investment portfolio. Asset allocation and diversification are techniques to help reduce risk. There is no guarantee that asset allocation or diversification ensures profit or protects against loss. Generally, among asset classes stocks are more volatile than bonds or short-term instruments and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Foreign securities are subject to special risks, including currency fluctuation and political and economic instability.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The views expressed are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. The information and opinions presented are current only as of the date of writing, without regard to the date on which you may access this information. All opinions and estimates are subject to change at any time without notice.

Advisory services are provided by Advice & Planning Services, a division of TIAA-CREF Individual & Institutional Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.  

Investment Management Group (IMG) is the investment management division of TIAA Trust, N.A., and provides the underlying investment management services. TIAA Trust, N.A., and Advice and Planning Services are affiliates, and wholly owned subsidiaries of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America (TIAA). Each entity is solely responsible for its own financial condition and contractual obligations.