Hello and welcome.  I’m Neel Mukherjee, TIAA Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer and today I’m excited to share with you some of the highlights from the Wealth Management 2025 Outlook. This Outlook, “Finding Balance: Fiscal Adventures versus the Bond Market,” recaps several key themes that unfolded during 2024, and how the economy and financial markets reacted during a noisy election year. It includes our forward-looking views on global growth, inflation, central bank policy, equity and fixed income markets, as well as potential “surprises” we will be monitoring in the new year.

The stock market surprised to the upside in 2024, driven by resilient economic growth, robust consumer spending, a normalizing labor market, and easing inflation risks that provided the Fed confidence to start cutting interest rates.

The elections that took place across the globe in 2024, ushered in a new paradigm for the economy, policy, and geopolitics. As new leaders assume power, they will face the challenge of navigating complex economic and geopolitical landscapes.

In the U.S., the Republican sweep in November creates both opportunities and risks for the economy and investors. The market narrative is likely to be sensitive to what policies are prioritized by the new administration, and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to balance growth and inflation risks. Our base case for how 2025 could evolve includes four important themes:

1. First - U.S. economic growth outperforms the rest of the world.

2. Second - Two sided risks to inflation, keeps bond volatility high.

3. Third - Fiscal policy drives shifting market and monetary policy outcomes.

4. Fourth - Global economic fragmentation accelerates.

As we adapt to this evolving global environment, we believe investors are best served by remaining anchored to their long-term investment strategies. 2025 will be another interesting year, and we hope that our Outlook will help bring context to what lies ahead.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for informational or educational purposes only and is not fiduciary investment advice, or a securities, investment strategy, or insurance product recommendation. This material does not consider an individual’s own objectives or circumstances which should be the basis of any investment decision.

All investments involve some degree of risk, including loss of principal. Investment objectives may not be met. Investments in managed accounts should be considered in view of a larger, more diversified investment portfolio. Asset allocation and diversification are techniques to help reduce risk. There is no guarantee that asset allocation or diversification ensures profit or protects against loss. Generally, among asset classes stocks are more volatile than bonds or short-term instruments and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Foreign securities are subject to special risks, including currency fluctuation and political and economic instability.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The views expressed are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. The information and opinions presented are current only as of the date of writing, without regard to the date on which you may access this information. All opinions and estimates are subject to change at any time without notice. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example.

INVESTMENT, INSURANCE AND ANNUITY PRODUCTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED, ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED, ARE NOT DEPOSITS, ARE NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY, ARE NOT A CONDITION TO ANY BANKING SERVICE OR ACTIVITY, AND MAY LOSE VALUE.

Advisory services are provided by Advice & Planning Services, a division of TIAA-CREF Individual & Institutional Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser.

Investment Management Group (IMG) is the investment management division of TIAA Trust, N.A., and provides the underlying investment management services. TIAA Trust, N.A., and Advice and Planning Services are affiliates, and wholly owned subsidiaries of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America (TIAA). Each entity is solely responsible for its own financial condition and contractual obligations.