Approximately two-thirds of community college students expect to attain a four-year degree, but less than a third of those actually transfer to a four-year college.
Summary
Which community college students are most likely to eventually attain a four-year STEM degree? Drawing on two longitudinal samples, this study uses predictive analytics and counterfactual evidence to identify first-year community college students with high probabilities of four-year graduation in STEM fields (referred to as “counterfactual students”), laying the groundwork for future interventions to improve success rates.
Key Insights
While the prevalence of counterfactual community college students doubled in the most recent sample, they are less likely to attain a four-year degree in STEM.
At the cohort level, there was a 70% decrease in the likelihood of counterfactual students attaining a four-year STEM degree.
Socioeconomic status is the single most important driver of STEM attainment.
